CLEVELAND (ninety two.three the Fan) – This author has tried to make it abundantly clear that, subjectively talking, retaining Carlos Santana must be the highest precedence for the Cleveland Indians after the departure of Mickey Callaway.
It’s straightforward in baseball to say a entrance workplace ought to do one thing or not, particularly with out figuring out a group’s price range. Fortunately, we will attempt to derive a participant’s value earlier than making an attempt to imagine whether or not or not that may match right into a staff’s price range.
In line with Fangraphs, Carlos Santana’s previous two seasons have been value $24M and $29.3M on the open market, respectively. That quantity is derived from a conversion of a participant’s WAR right into a greenback quantity. These WAR numbers have been three.zero and three.7 in relation.
Even the decrease of these base salaries, a $24M per yr contract, would place Santana 12th in baseball amongst earners from 2017. Santana isn’t the 12th-greatest participant in baseball, and is definitely rated the eleventh-greatest free agent this low season by Jon Heyman and Fanrag Sports activities.
Heyman tasks Santana’s free agent contract to be a $48M deal over three years, a $16M-per-yr deal. In the identical piece, Heyman consults and unnamed “skilled,” who he says is an ideal 10-for-10 through the years in predicting salaries as compared. The skilled tasks a $38M deal over three years, $12.67M-per-yr.
Spotrac, an internet site that homes correct wage info, tasks Santana to make much more than Heyman and his marketing consultant, utilizing statistical evaluation and linear regression to match contracts and undertaking new ones. Their quantity: 5 years, $ninety one.47M, $18.3M per yr.
Santana has turned down the Indians’ qualifying supply based on Heyman, a one-yr, $17.4M deal, which was only a formality. He made $12M final season in his age-31 season.
Clearly, it is sensible for a quickly-to-be 32-yr-previous to show down a one-yr deal when he’ll get a minimum of three-years of comparable money assured.
Whereas that $18.3M determine is sensible when figuring in others’ contracts, there are many different elements to assist (or complicate) the ironing out course of.
On one aspect, Santana has turned himself into an incredible defensive first-baseman, profitable the Wilson Defensive Participant of the Yr on the place. By the identical token, defensive success is greatest measured over three years, and Santana was not almost as polished in 2015 making his success more durable to undertaking.
Santana is flexible, a change-hitter who can hit anyplace within the prime-5 of a batting order, and has additionally proven a…